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Ariella Merlino Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Goalie DOB: 2004-08-03 Country: Canada Height: 5'8" (173 cm)
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NCAA Division I

Save % Equivalency
Goals Against Average
Base SV%
Year Adj
Source
Confidence

NCAA D3 / D2

Save % Equivalency
Goals Against Average
Base SV%
Year Adj
Source
Confidence
Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw SV%  ·  Solid blue = age-adj SVe%  ·  Green = actual college SV%
Goalie Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP W L SV% GAA SO SVe Factor Age-Adj SV%
2023-24 Windsor Southwest Wildcats OWHL-U22 27 0 19 89.6% 5.76 0 0.9700 72.1%
2021-22 Mississauga Hurricanes U22 OWHL-U22 16 8 5 94.3% 2.21 2 0.9700 89.9%
SVe Factor = save% equivalency relative to NCAA D1 average  ·  COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div GP W L SV% GAA SO
2022-23 Syracuse D1 3 1 0 100.0% 1
Goalie Comparables (D1)

Historical goalies with similar age-adjusted SVe profiles who went on to play NCAA D1.

Name Junior League Junior SV% Adj SVe College NCAA SV% NCAA GAA
Monja Wagner 19U-AAA-W 94.3% 77.3% Union 89.7% 3.65
Mattie Robitzer 19U-AAA-W 94.3% 80.6% Northeastern
Madison Bowtell CSSHL-U18W 93.2% 87.6% Lindenwood 86.5% 4.96
Bella Gould 19U-AAA-W 92.0% 89.2% Syracuse
Eva Filippova CSSHL-U18W 93.6% 73.9% Bemidji State 88.0% 4.31
Goalie Comparables (D2/D3)

Historical goalies with similar age-adjusted SVe profiles who went on to play NCAA D2/D3.

Name Junior League Junior SV% Adj SVe College Div SV% GAA
Devyn Amundson OWHL-U22 91.0% 75.8% Post D3 84.1% 6.44
Alejandra Erdman JWHL-U19 84.4% 82.7% Connecticut College D3 88.9% 1.20
Jordana DeMarinis OWHL-U22 89.4% 87.6% St. Michael's College D3 91.5% 3.78
Sarah Dobrzynski 19U-AAA-W 91.6% 89.8% Lawrence D3 90.9% 3.62
Rylee Eno OWHL-U22 92.9% 91.0% Franklin Pierce D3 90.9% 6.00

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.