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Dylan Duke Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2003-03-04 Country: USA
2021 · Round 4, Pick #126  ·  Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
Signed Professionally

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 — NTDP-U18 52 29 19 48 0.923 0.6861 0.6861 3.4445 3.4445
2020-21 — NTDP-U18 53 29 20 49 0.924 0.6872 0.6872 3.4497 3.4497
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2023-24 Michigan D1 BigTen JR 41 26 23 49 1.195
2022-23 Michigan D1 BigTen SO 41 18 14 32 0.780
2021-22 Michigan D1 BigTen FR 41 10 9 19 0.463
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.64
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.46
2021-22 · Michigan
-27.5% vs. projection

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.