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Grace Outwater Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2006-10-10 Country: Canada
No commitment set

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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 Nepean Wildcats OWHL-U22 27 5 5 10 0.370 0.1295 0.1295 — —
2022-23 Ottawa Senators U22 OWHL-U22 30 15 12 27 0.900 0.3146 0.3146 — —
2023-24 Ottawa Senators U22 OWHL-U22 38 50 24 74 1.947 0.6808 0.6808 — —
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Penn State D1 WCHA-W — 36 24 16 40 1.111
2024-25 Penn State D1 WCHA-W — 38 16 10 26 0.684
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.50
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.68
2024-25 · Penn State
+37.6% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

40%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
60%
Club / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#930
Forward overall
#34
Forward born in 2006
#30
in OWHL-U22

D1 Comparables

Erin Conway
NE-Prep-Girls · 2012-13 · 1.48 PPG
→ Brown (0.44 D1 FR PPG)
0.68 Average
NCAAe PPG
Nicole Schammel
USHS-MN-W · 2012-13 · 4.16 PPG
→ Minnesota State (0.61 D1 FR PPG)
0.67 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Nicole Guagliardo
USHS-W · 2013-14 · 2.27 PPG
→ Mercyhurst (0.16 D1 FR PPG)
0.66 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Jessie Aney
USHS-MN-W · 2013-14 · 4.36 PPG
→ UConn (0.27 D1 FR PPG)
0.70 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Phoebe Staenz
NE-Prep-Girls · 2012-13 · 1.38 PPG
→ Yale (0.68 D1 FR PPG)
0.63 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Erin Conway
Brown ·
0.440 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Nicole Schammel
Minnesota State ·
0.611 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Nicole Guagliardo
Mercyhurst ·
0.156 Developing
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.