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Ethan Hay Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-01-15 Country: Canada
2023 · Round 7, Pick #211  ·  Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 — OHL 59 8 11 19 0.322 0.1863 0.2006 0.8274 0.8909
2022-23 — OHL 64 17 11 28 0.438 0.2531 0.2616 1.1242 1.1618
2023-24 Saginaw Spirit OHL 67 12 12 24 0.358 0.2072 0.2042 0.9204 0.9071
2024-25 Saginaw Spirit OHL 62 13 18 31 0.500 0.2893 0.2702 1.2848 1.1999
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Miami D1 NCHC FR 35 4 12 16 0.457
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.21
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.46
2025-26 · Miami
+119.0% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

15%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
32%
Age-Out / Club
42%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#20764
Forward overall
#1121
Forward born in 2005
#826
in OHL

D1 Comparables

Max Birkinbine
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.46 PPG
→ Air Force (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Ryan Siiro
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.52 PPG
→ Princeton (0.38 D1 FR PPG)
0.29 Average
NCAAe PPG
Cullen Hurley
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.38 PPG
→ Wisconsin
0.21 No data
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Deresky
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.79 PPG
→ Bentley (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.28 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Joseph-Matthew Manno
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.63 PPG
→ Northeastern (0.22 D1 FR PPG)
0.34 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Josh Maucieri
St. Thomas · 2018-19
0.800 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Louie Kamienski
Endicott · 2023-24
1.000 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Harrison Follett
Misericordia · 2023-24
0.000 No data
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.