IcePath icepath.io · Hockey Analytics
← New Search ↗ Social Card

Ethan Hay Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-01-15 Country: Canada
2023 NHL Draft Round 7, Pick #211  ·  Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
⚠️ Aging Out 2025-26: Turns 20 before Dec 31, 2025 — final eligible junior season.
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 — OHL 59 8 11 19 0.322 0.1869 0.2012 0.8251 0.8884
2022-23 — OHL 64 17 11 28 0.438 0.2539 0.2624 1.1211 1.1586
2023-24 Saginaw Spirit OHL 67 12 12 24 0.358 0.2079 0.2049 0.9179 0.9046
2024-25 Saginaw Spirit OHL 62 13 18 31 0.500 0.2902 0.2710 1.2812 1.1966
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Miami D1 NCHC FR 35 4 12 16 0.457
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.21
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.46
2025-26 · Miami
+118.4% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

18%
NCAA D1
8%
NCAA D2/D3
60%
Age-Out / Club
12%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#20441
Forward overall
#1100
Forward born in 2005
#1250
in OHL

D1 Comparables

Max Birkinbine
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.46 PPG
→ Air Force (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.26 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Cullen Hurley
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.38 PPG
→ Wisconsin
0.22 No data
NCAAe PPG
Ryan Siiro
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.52 PPG
→ Princeton (0.38 D1 FR PPG)
0.30 Average
NCAAe PPG
Joseph-Matthew Manno
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.63 PPG
→ Northeastern (0.22 D1 FR PPG)
0.36 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Alexander Dahl
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.38 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.22 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Josh Maucieri
St. Thomas · 2018-19
0.800 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Marlon Gardner
Neumann · 2006-07
1.067 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Jeremy Dawes
St. Scholastica · 2006-07
1.036 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.