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Carsen Musser Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Goalie DOB: 2005-05-19 Country: USA
2023 · Round 6, Pick #166  ·  Utah Mammoth Utah Mammoth (via ARI)
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NCAA Division I

Save % Equivalency
Goals Against Average
Base SV%
Year Adj
Source
Confidence

NCAA D3 / D2

Save % Equivalency
Goals Against Average
Base SV%
Year Adj
Source
Confidence
Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw SV%  ·  Solid blue = age-adj SVe%  ·  Green = actual college SV%
Goalie Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP W L SV% GAA SO SVe Factor Age-Adj SV%
2023-24 Madison Capitols USHL 32 17 11 90.5% 2.74 0 0.9983 90.5%
2022-23 NTDP-U18 29 14 7 88.5% 3.23 0 0.9200 80.1%
2022-23 USHL 9 4 3 86.3% 4.11 0 0.9983 89.5%
2021-22 NTDP-U18 19 8 9 88.8% 3.49 1 0.9200 83.5%
2021-22 USHL 15 2 5 86.2% 4.42 0 0.9983 92.7%
SVe Factor = save% equivalency relative to NCAA D1 average  ·  COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div GP W L SV% GAA SO
2024-25 Colorado College D1 9 3 3 87.9% 3.94 0
Goalie Comparables (D1)

Historical goalies with similar age-adjusted SVe profiles who went on to play NCAA D1.

Name Junior League Junior SV% Adj SVe College NCAA SV% NCAA GAA
Mathis Langevin QMJHL 91.2% 91.3% Miami 93.8% 2.00
Matthew Thiessen USHL 88.9% 89.3% Maine 50.0% 25.59
Kaidan Mbereko USHL 89.8% 90.6% Colorado College 92.5% 2.30
Mikhail Yegorov USHL 91.2% 90.5% Boston University 90.4% 2.73
Ben Kraws USHL 89.5% 90.4% Miami 87.1% 4.12
Goalie Comparables (D2/D3)

Historical goalies with similar age-adjusted SVe profiles who went on to play NCAA D2/D3.

Name Junior League Junior SV% Adj SVe College Div SV% GAA
Brody Haynes NCDC 92.5% 92.3% Elmira D3 94.8% 1.22
Cooper Rautenstrauch NCDC 90.6% 92.2% Colby D3 93.4% 2.08
Cooper Rautenstrauch NAHL 88.9% 92.2% Colby D3 93.4% 2.08
Vaughn Makar NAHL 90.9% 94.0% St. Norbert D3 93.2% 1.73
Justin Damon USPHL-Premier 94.0% 91.2% Gustavus Adolphus D3 92.9% 2.27

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.