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Matt Cairns Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 1998-04-27 Country: Canada
2016 · Round 3, Pick #84  ·  Edmonton Oilers Edmonton Oilers
Signed Professionally
IF Björklöven · Allsvenskan

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2014-15 Toronto Patriots OJHL 53 1 9 10 0.189 0.0463 0.0514 0.1299 0.1442
2015-16 Georgetown Raiders OJHL 46 9 24 33 0.717 0.1758 0.1854 0.4939 0.5208
2016-17 Fargo Force USHL 17 0 4 4 0.235 0.1388 0.1393 0.7067 0.7091
2024-25 IF Björklöven Allsvenskan 4 2 2 4 1.000 2.5000 2.3627 9.3819 8.8666
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2020-21 Minnesota Duluth D1 NCHC SR 28 0 6 6 0.214
2019-20 Cornell D1 ECAC JR 19 0 1 1 0.053
2018-19 Cornell D1 ECAC SO 32 2 2 4 0.125
2017-18 Cornell D1 ECAC FR 10 1 0 1 0.100
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.15
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.10
2017-18 · Cornell
-32.8% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 29 comparables)

🏒 NHL / Pro Track — production profile is consistent with players who bypassed or minimized college hockey
0%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
100%
NHL / Pro

NCAAe Rankings

#5810
Defenseman overall
#1249
Defenseman born in 1998

D2/3 Comparables

Neil Trimm
Neumann · 2003-04
1.800 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Arkhip Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Brandon Osmundson
Utica · 2018-19
1.448 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.