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Tanner Kelly Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2002-05-11 Country: USA
No commitment set

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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2018-19 Muskegon Lumberjacks USHL 6 0 1 1 0.167 0.0983 0.1085 0.5007 0.5528
2019-20 Muskegon Lumberjacks USHL 42 3 12 15 0.357 0.2107 0.2107 1.0725 1.0725
2020-21 Muskegon Lumberjacks USHL 53 21 26 47 0.887 0.5231 0.5231 2.6634 2.6634
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2024-25 Michigan D1 BigTen SR 37 8 9 17 0.460
2023-24 Michigan D1 BigTen JR 35 9 9 18 0.514
2022-23 Michigan D1 BigTen SO 38 4 14 18 0.474
2021-22 Michigan D1 BigTen FR 34 3 2 5 0.147
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.09
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.15
2021-22 · Michigan
+58.3% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

25%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
75%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#8740
Forward overall
#417
Forward born in 2002
#697
in USHL

D1 Comparables

Sam Kauppila
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.14 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.09 D1 FR PPG)
0.11 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Alex Tuch
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.26 PPG
→ Boston College (0.76 D1 FR PPG)
0.17 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Chris Dodero
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.23 PPG
→ American International (0.09 D1 FR PPG)
0.15 Developing
NCAAe PPG
J.J. Piccinich
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Boston University (0.16 D1 FR PPG)
0.15 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Joe Wegwerth
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.25 PPG
→ Notre Dame (0.13 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Brady Tatro
Concordia · 2014-15
0.000 No data
actual D2/3 PPG
Connor Armour
Adrian · 2010-11
1.357 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Chris Atkinson
Curry · 2004-05
0.962 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.