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Jayson Shaugabay Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-04-05 Country: USA
2023 · Round 4, Pick #115  ·  Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 Warroad USHS-MN 28 30 42 72 2.571 0.3255 0.3255 0.6246 0.6246
2020-21 Warroad USHS-MN 20 24 30 54 2.700 0.3418 0.3418 0.6558 0.6558
2021-22 — USHL 9 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2022-23 — USHL 27 3 13 16 0.593 0.3496 0.3659 1.7798 1.8626
2023-24 Green Bay Gamblers USHL 62 15 40 55 0.887 0.5233 0.5217 2.6643 2.6559
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Minnesota Duluth D1 NCHC SO 40 11 32 43 1.075
2024-25 Minnesota Duluth D1 NCHC — 36 12 14 26 0.722
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.39
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.72
2024-25 · Minnesota Duluth
+83.7% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

98%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
2%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#4727
Forward overall
#115
Forward born in 2005

D1 Comparables

Austin Ortega
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.91 PPG
→ Nebraska Omaha (0.54 D1 FR PPG)
0.53 Average
NCAAe PPG
Sheldon Dries
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.91 PPG
→ Western Michigan (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.53 Developing
NCAAe PPG
John Stevens
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.81 PPG
→ Northeastern (0.59 D1 FR PPG)
0.48 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Frank Vatrano
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.80 PPG
→ UMass
0.55 No data
NCAAe PPG
C.J. Suess
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.95 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.76 D1 FR PPG)
0.56 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Ryan Reifler
Elmira · 2017-18
1.067 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Lucas Signoretti
Buffalo State · 2023-24
1.120 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Christopher Miraldo
Westfield State · 2022-23
1.037 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.