IcePath icepath.io · Hockey Analytics
← New Search ↗ Social Card

Justin Gill Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2003-01-27 Country: Canada
2023 · Round 5, Pick #145  ·  New York Islanders New York Islanders
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 Charlottetown Islanders QMJHL 50 5 7 12 0.240 0.1179 0.1179 0.6409 0.6409
2020-21 — QMJHL 34 6 15 21 0.618 0.3034 0.3034 1.6492 1.6492
2021-22 Sherbrooke Phoenix QMJHL 68 20 26 46 0.676 0.3324 0.3285 1.8065 1.7852
2022-23 Sherbrooke Phoenix QMJHL 68 44 49 93 1.368 0.6719 0.6311 3.6519 3.4304
2023-24 Baie-Comeau Drakkar QMJHL 65 40 58 98 1.508 0.7407 0.6593 4.0260 3.5833
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Merrimack D1 HockeyEast FR 36 16 19 35 0.972
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.60
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.97
2025-26 · Merrimack
+61.2% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

5%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
38%
Age-Out / Club
57%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#3717
Forward overall
#87
Forward born in 2003
#75
in QMJHL

D1 Comparables

Mike Szmatula
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.21 PPG
→ Northeastern (1.05 D1 FR PPG)
0.65 Elite
NCAAe PPG
Kyle Novak
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.20 PPG
→ Western Michigan (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.65 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Michael Vecchione
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.95 PPG
→ Union (0.89 D1 FR PPG)
0.53 Elite
NCAAe PPG
Luc Gerdes
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.00 PPG
→ Colorado College (0.25 D1 FR PPG)
0.56 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Sam Anas
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.98 PPG
→ Quinnipiac (1.07 D1 FR PPG)
0.55 Elite
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Neil Trimm
Neumann · 2003-04
1.800 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Arkhip Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Brandon Osmundson
Utica · 2018-19
1.448 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.