IcePath icepath.io · Hockey Analytics
← New Search ↗ Social Card

Noah Cates Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1999-02-05 Country: USA
2017 · Round 5, Pick #137  ·  Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
Signed Professionally

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2014-15 — USHS-MN 25 13 17 30 1.200 0.1519 0.1589 0.2915 0.3049
2015-16 — USHL 2 1 0 1 0.500 0.2949 0.3224 1.5017 1.6417
2016-17 — USHL 11 2 5 7 0.636 0.3754 0.3912 1.9114 1.9920
2017-18 — USHL 60 21 34 55 0.917 0.5408 0.5368 2.7532 2.7327
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2021-22 Minnesota Duluth D1 NCHC — 37 11 13 24 0.649
2020-21 Minnesota Duluth D1 NCHC JR 28 5 14 19 0.679
2019-20 Minnesota Duluth D1 NCHC SO 34 14 19 33 0.971
2018-19 Minnesota Duluth D1 NCHC FR 40 9 14 23 0.575
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.41
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.57
2018-19 · Minnesota Duluth
+40.4% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

95%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
5%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

D1 Comparables

Nathan Walker
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.93 PPG
→ Marian (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.54 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Frank Vatrano
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.80 PPG
→ UMass
0.55 No data
NCAAe PPG
C.J. Suess
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.95 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.76 D1 FR PPG)
0.56 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Zeb Knutson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.82 PPG
→ Minnesota State (0.33 D1 FR PPG)
0.48 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Dave Gust
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.77 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.38 D1 FR PPG)
0.45 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Ryan Reifler
Elmira · 2017-18
1.067 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Geordan Buffoline
University of New England · 2017-18
1.667 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Joona Juntunen
Saint Mary's (MN) · 2023-24
0.826 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.