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Nathan Smith Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1998-10-19 Country: USA
2018 · Round 3, Pick #91  ·  Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2016-17 Aberdeen Wings NAHL 4 1 1 2 0.500 0.1837 0.1944 0.5278 0.5585
2017-18 Cedar Rapids RoughRiders USHL 51 17 30 47 0.922 0.5437 0.5316 2.7679 2.7061
2018-19 Cedar Rapids RoughRiders USHL 59 18 35 53 0.898 0.5299 0.4907 2.6980 2.4984
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2021-22 Minnesota State D1 CCHA — 38 19 31 50 1.316
2020-21 Minnesota State D1 WCHA SO 28 9 16 25 0.893
2019-20 Minnesota State D1 WCHA FR 35 9 18 27 0.771
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.47
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.77
2019-20 · Minnesota State
+63.4% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

92%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
2%
Age-Out / Club
0%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#4633
Forward overall
#215
Forward born in 1998

D1 Comparables

Jared VanWormer
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.27 PPG
→ Ferris State (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.44 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Sean Gaffney
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.14 PPG
→ UConn (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.40 Developing
NCAAe PPG
A.J. Reid
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.18 PPG
→ Air Force (0.26 D1 FR PPG)
0.41 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tim Bonner
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.89 PPG
→ Yale
0.48 No data
NCAAe PPG
Jonathan Davis
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.03 PPG
→ Nebraska Omaha (0.06 D1 FR PPG)
0.36 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Rihards Marenis
Aurora · 2013-14
1.000 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Sascha Figi
Fitchburg State · 2016-17
1.429 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Jason Kalinowski
Endicott · 2015-16
1.310 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.