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Jayson Dobay Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 1999-07-27 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2018-19 Youngstown Phantoms USHL 56 2 16 18 0.321 0.1896 0.1829 0.9469 0.9133
2019-20 Youngstown Phantoms USHL 48 6 16 22 0.458 0.2704 0.2704 1.3502 1.3502
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2022-23 Utica D3 UCHC JR 29 5 32 37 1.276
2021-22 Utica D3 UCHC SO 29 7 28 35 1.207
2020-21 Utica D1 — FR 10 3 5 8 0.800
2020-21 Utica D3 UCHC FR 10 3 5 8 0.800
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.17
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.80
2020-21 · Utica
+363.2% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

65%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
22%
Age-Out / Club
10%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#4460
Defenseman overall
#1050
Defenseman born in 1999
#2125
in USHL

D1 Comparables

Christian Neumann
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.29 PPG
→ UConn (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Tommy Davis
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.34 PPG
→ Princeton (0.29 D1 FR PPG)
0.20 Average D
NCAAe PPG
James Roll
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.22 PPG
→ Lake Superior State (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.12 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Mike McKee
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.50 PPG
→ Western Michigan (0.05 D1 FR PPG)
0.28 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Tucker Poolman
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.44 PPG
→ North Dakota (0.45 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Strong D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Graham Fallon
SUNY Cortland · 2005-06
0.917 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Nikita Kozyrev
Buffalo State · 2017-18
1.231 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Joona Juntunen
Saint Mary's (MN) · 2022-23
0.826 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.