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David Tolan Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2003-10-16 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 Northeast Generals NAHL 40 10 13 23 0.575 0.2042 0.2176 0.6037 0.6434
2022-23 — NAHL 33 11 8 19 0.576 0.2045 0.2079 0.6045 0.6146
2023-24 — NAHL 33 3 10 13 0.394 0.1399 0.1355 0.4136 0.4007
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Buffalo State D3 SUNYAC SO 19 3 6 9 0.474
2024-25 Buffalo State D3 SUNYAC — 23 6 5 11 0.478
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.14
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.48
2024-25 · Buffalo State
+239.7% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

28%
NCAA D1
15%
NCAA D2/D3
52%
Age-Out / Club
2%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#28845
Forward overall
#1657
Forward born in 2003
#2508
in NAHL

D1 Comparables

Woody Hudson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.43 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.23 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Deresky
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.79 PPG
→ Bentley (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.27 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Cullen Hurley
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.38 PPG
→ Wisconsin
0.21 No data
NCAAe PPG
Max Birkinbine
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.46 PPG
→ Air Force (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Eli Lichtenwald
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.36 PPG
→ Union (0.68 D1 FR PPG)
0.19 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Sean Roadhouse
Wisconsin-River Falls · 2007-08
0.480 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Jordan Zalba
Neumann · 2008-09
0.741 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
James Albrecht
Wesleyan · 2010-11
0.583 Average
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.