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Luke Mittelstadt Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2003-01-22 Country: USA
2023 NHL Draft Round 7, Pick #197  ·  Montreal Canadiens Montreal Canadiens
Signed Professionally

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 Eden Prairie USHS-MN 31 5 27 32 1.032 0.2779 0.2779 0.2507 0.2507
2020-21 — USHL 12 2 1 3 0.250 0.1537 0.1537 0.7366 0.7366
2021-22 — USHL 60 19 36 55 0.917 0.5635 0.5570 2.7008 2.6696
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Minnesota D1 BigTen SR 36 2 19 21 0.583
2024-25 Minnesota D1 BigTen JR 40 2 16 18 0.450
2023-24 Minnesota D1 BigTen SO 38 2 18 20 0.526
2022-23 Minnesota D1 BigTen FR 38 5 16 21 0.553
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.42
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.55
2022-23 · Minnesota
+31.4% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

80%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
8%
Age-Out / Club
10%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

D1 Comparables

Will Butcher
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.55 PPG
→ Denver (0.42 D1 FR PPG)
0.41 Strong D
NCAAe PPG
Matt Nuttle
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.67 PPG
→ Cornell
0.43 No data
NCAAe PPG
Paul LaDue
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.79 PPG
→ North Dakota (0.51 D1 FR PPG)
0.44 Elite D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Ryan Reifler
Elmira · 2017-18
1.067 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Lucas Signoretti
Buffalo State · 2023-24
1.120 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Zach Dill
Salem State · 2021-22
1.111 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.