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Lucas Sowder Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1998-11-15 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2016-17 Wenatchee Wild BCHL 42 7 16 23 0.548 0.2110 0.2218 0.7969 0.8375
2017-18 Wenatchee Wild BCHL 48 22 38 60 1.250 0.4816 0.4830 1.8191 1.8245
2018-19 Wenatchee Wild BCHL 42 11 34 45 1.071 0.4128 0.3917 1.5592 1.4796
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2023-24 Minnesota State D1 BigTen — 33 13 15 28 0.849
2022-23 Minnesota State D1 BigTen — 25 5 9 14 0.560
2021-22 Minnesota State D1 CCHA — 37 7 16 23 0.622
2020-21 Minnesota State D1 WCHA SO 7 0 0 0 0.000
2019-20 Minnesota State D1 WCHA FR 31 6 25 31 1.000
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.37
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
1.00
2019-20 · Minnesota State
+172.8% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

70%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
22%
Age-Out / Club
2%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#10529
Forward overall
#471
Forward born in 1998
#302
in BCHL

D1 Comparables

Joseph-Matthew Manno
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.63 PPG
→ Northeastern (0.22 D1 FR PPG)
0.34 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Gerald Mayhew
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.75 PPG
→ Ferris State (0.56 D1 FR PPG)
0.41 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Sean Gaffney
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.14 PPG
→ UConn (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.40 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Emil Romig
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.00 PPG
→ Denver (0.31 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Deresky
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.79 PPG
→ Bentley (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.28 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Bradley Somers
Adrian · 2021-22
0.871 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Gage Dill
Curry · 2021-22
1.000 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Lucas Van Natter
Manhattanville · 2009-10
0.857 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.