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Danny Nelson Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-08-03 Country: USA
2023 · Round 2, Pick #49  ·  New York Islanders New York Islanders
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 — NTDP-U18 11 7 4 11 1.000 0.7433 0.7736 3.7314 3.8834
2022-23 — NTDP-U18 62 21 26 47 0.758 0.5635 0.5568 2.8288 2.7951
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Notre Dame D1 BigTen — 36 13 16 29 0.806
2024-25 Notre Dame D1 BigTen SO 36 13 13 26 0.722
2023-24 Notre Dame D1 BigTen FR 30 9 14 23 0.767
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.60
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.77
2023-24 · Notre Dame
+28.0% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

95%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
2%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#6214
Forward overall
#201
Forward born in 2005

D1 Comparables

Connor Hurley
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.73 PPG
→ Notre Dame (0.34 D1 FR PPG)
0.46 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Matthew Weis
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.71 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.67 D1 FR PPG)
0.44 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Gabe Guertler
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.85 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.53 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Sean Malone
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.87 PPG
→ Harvard (0.65 D1 FR PPG)
0.54 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Trevor Moore
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.02 PPG
→ Denver (0.76 D1 FR PPG)
0.63 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Geordan Buffoline
University of New England · 2017-18
1.667 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Joona Juntunen
Saint Mary's (MN) · 2023-24
0.826 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Ryan Reifler
Elmira · 2017-18
1.067 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.