IcePath icepath.io · Hockey Analytics
← New Search ↗ Social Card

Alexander Bales Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2006-07-06 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2022-23 Tri-City Storm USHL 8 1 0 1 0.125 0.0768 0.0852 0.3683 0.4085
2023-24 Tri-City Storm USHL 34 3 14 17 0.500 0.3074 0.3257 1.4731 1.5606
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Providence D1 HockeyEast SO 27 0 3 3 0.111
2024-25 Providence D1 HockeyEast — 32 2 3 5 0.156
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.22
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.16
2024-25 · Providence
-27.9% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

75%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
5%
Age-Out / Club
15%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#2933
Defenseman overall
#594
Defenseman born in 2006
#1491
in USHL

D1 Comparables

Neal Pionk
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.50 PPG
→ Minnesota Duluth (0.42 D1 FR PPG)
0.33 Strong D
NCAAe PPG
Michael Brodzinski
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.54 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.50 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Michael Downing
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.44 PPG
→ Michigan (0.35 D1 FR PPG)
0.29 Strong D
NCAAe PPG
Corey Schueneman
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.46 PPG
→ Western Michigan (0.37 D1 FR PPG)
0.30 Strong D
NCAAe PPG
Jordan Gross
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.48 PPG
→ Notre Dame (0.67 D1 FR PPG)
0.31 Elite D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Brett Gravelle
St. Thomas · 2014-15
0.923 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Collin Patterson
UMass Dartmouth · 2021-22
1.125 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Geordan Buffoline
New England · 2018-19
1.667 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.