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Breck McKinley Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2003-10-08 Country: Canada
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 Spruce Grove Saints AJHL 9 0 2 2 0.222 0.0737 0.0737 0.2059 0.2059
2020-21 Spruce Grove Saints AJHL 15 3 9 12 0.800 0.2654 0.2654 0.7414 0.7414
2021-22 Spruce Grove Saints AJHL 55 4 38 42 0.764 0.2534 0.2643 0.7077 0.7381
2022-23 Spruce Grove Saints AJHL 55 10 43 53 0.964 0.3197 0.3176 0.8931 0.8872
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Bowling Green D1 CCHA JR 36 2 24 26 0.722
2024-25 Bowling Green D1 CCHA JR 35 1 6 7 0.200
2023-24 Bowling Green D1 CCHA SO 31 0 6 6 0.194
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.28
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.19
2023-24 · Bowling Green
-30.8% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

22%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
25%
Age-Out / Club
52%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#3385
Defenseman overall
#849
Defenseman born in 2003
#426
in AJHL

D1 Comparables

Ryan Murray
WHL · 2012-13 · 0.74 PPG
→ Hamline (0.28 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Mike McKee
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.50 PPG
→ Western Michigan (0.05 D1 FR PPG)
0.30 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Nelson Armstrong
OHL · 2012-13 · 0.52 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.30 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Tommy Davis
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.34 PPG
→ Princeton (0.29 D1 FR PPG)
0.20 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Christian Neumann
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.29 PPG
→ UConn (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.17 Developing D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Eric Selleck
SUNY Oswego · 2006-07
1.000 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Tristan Mock
Becker · 2018-19
0.444 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Brett Penner
Concordia (WI) · 2011-12
1.000 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.