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Rieger Lorenz Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2004-03-30 Country: Canada
Signed Professionally

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 — AJHL 1 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2020-21 — AJHL 7 2 1 3 0.429 0.1432 0.1432 0.3979 0.3979
2021-22 — AJHL 60 38 47 85 1.417 0.4732 0.5048 1.3151 1.4029
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Denver D1 NCHC SR 43 17 18 35 0.814
2024-25 Denver D1 NCHC JR 44 6 14 20 0.455
2023-24 Denver D1 NCHC SO 44 16 14 30 0.682
2022-23 Denver D1 NCHC FR 37 2 7 9 0.243
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.47
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.24
2022-23 · Denver
-48.2% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

40%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
8%
Age-Out / Club
52%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

D1 Comparables

Tyler Motte
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.67 PPG
→ Michigan (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.52 Average
NCAAe PPG
Sean Malone
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.66 PPG
→ Harvard (0.65 D1 FR PPG)
0.51 Strong
NCAAe PPG
John Hayden
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.64 PPG
→ Yale (0.48 D1 FR PPG)
0.49 Average
NCAAe PPG
Gabe Guertler
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.85 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.57 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Matthew Weis
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.71 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.67 D1 FR PPG)
0.48 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Ryan Howe
Fitchburg State · 2024-25
0.700 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Connor Armour
Adrian · 2011-12
1.357 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Joshua Burke
Amherst · 2018-19
0.692 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.