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John Mustard Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2006-08-16 Country: Canada
2024 · Round 3, Pick #67  ·  Chicago Blackhawks Chicago Blackhawks
⚠️ Aging Out 2026-27: Turns 20 before Dec 31, 2026 — final eligible junior season.
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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2023-24 Waterloo Black Hawks USHL 60 29 27 56 0.933 0.5506 0.5864 2.8031 2.9854
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Providence D1 HockeyEast SO 36 17 12 29 0.806
2024-25 Providence D1 HockeyEast — 37 7 13 20 0.540
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.55
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.54
2024-25 · Providence
-1.0% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

95%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
5%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#4396
Forward overall
#73
Forward born in 2006
#166
in USHL

D1 Comparables

Connor Hurley
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.73 PPG
→ Notre Dame (0.34 D1 FR PPG)
0.46 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Gabe Guertler
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.85 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.53 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Sean Malone
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.87 PPG
→ Harvard (0.65 D1 FR PPG)
0.54 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Matthew Weis
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.71 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.67 D1 FR PPG)
0.44 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Trevor Moore
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.02 PPG
→ Denver (0.76 D1 FR PPG)
0.63 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Brandon Osmundson
Utica · 2016-17
1.448 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Ryan Ellis
SUNY Oswego · 2002-03
1.704 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Gus Katsuras
Hamilton · 2001-02
1.400 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.