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Luke Osburn Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2006-09-09 Country: USA
2024 NHL Draft Round 4, Pick #108  ·  Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2023-24 Youngstown Phantoms USHL 60 8 15 23 0.383 0.2356 0.2517 1.1293 1.2064
2024-25 Youngstown Phantoms USHL 55 10 31 41 0.746 0.4583 0.4662 2.1964 2.2343
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Wisconsin D1 BigTen FR 33 6 15 21 0.636
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.36
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.64
2025-26 · Wisconsin
+77.2% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

88%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
5%
Age-Out / Club
5%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#2085
Defenseman overall
#377
Defenseman born in 2006
#1000
in USHL

D1 Comparables

Will Butcher
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.55 PPG
→ Denver (0.42 D1 FR PPG)
0.41 Strong D
NCAAe PPG
Ian Brady
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.53 PPG
→ Nebraska Omaha (0.64 D1 FR PPG)
0.33 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Gavin Bayreuther
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.55 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.95 D1 FR PPG)
0.34 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Jaccob Slavin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.53 PPG
→ Colorado College (0.78 D1 FR PPG)
0.33 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Matias Cleland
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.62 PPG
→ New Hampshire (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.37 Developing D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Lucas Signoretti
Buffalo State · 2022-23
1.120 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Brandon Osmundson
Utica · 2017-18
1.448 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Tyler Barrow
Wilkes · 2016-17
1.385 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.