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Luke Osburn Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2006-09-09 Country: USA
2024 · Round 4, Pick #108  ·  Buffalo Sabres Buffalo Sabres
⚠️ Aging Out 2026-27: Turns 20 before Dec 31, 2026 — final eligible junior season.
No commitment set

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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2023-24 Youngstown Phantoms USHL 60 8 15 23 0.383 0.2261 0.2415 1.1512 1.2298
2024-25 Youngstown Phantoms USHL 55 10 31 41 0.746 0.4398 0.4474 2.2390 2.2777
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Wisconsin D1 BigTen FR 33 6 15 21 0.636
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.34
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.64
2025-26 · Wisconsin
+84.7% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

92%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
5%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#2192
Defenseman overall
#398
Defenseman born in 2006
#995
in USHL

D1 Comparables

Will Butcher
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.55 PPG
→ Denver (0.42 D1 FR PPG)
0.39 Strong D
NCAAe PPG
Ian Brady
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.53 PPG
→ Nebraska Omaha (0.64 D1 FR PPG)
0.32 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Gavin Bayreuther
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.55 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.95 D1 FR PPG)
0.32 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Jaccob Slavin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.53 PPG
→ Colorado College (0.78 D1 FR PPG)
0.31 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Matias Cleland
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.62 PPG
→ New Hampshire (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.36 Developing D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Tyler Barrow
Wilkes · 2016-17
1.385 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Ryan Reifler
Elmira · 2016-17
1.067 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Jared Goudreau
Southern New Hampshire · 2014-15
0.833 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.