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Nolan Collins Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2004-04-28 Country: Canada
2022 · Round 6, Pick #167  ·  Pittsburgh Penguins Pittsburgh Penguins
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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 Sudbury Wolves OHL 65 4 14 18 0.277 0.1602 0.1667 0.7115 0.7406
2022-23 Sudbury Wolves OHL 63 8 22 30 0.476 0.2755 0.2748 1.2236 1.2206
2023-24 Sudbury Wolves OHL 65 6 20 26 0.400 0.2314 0.2198 1.0278 0.9761
2024-25 Flint Firebirds OHL 36 4 13 17 0.472 0.2732 0.2454 1.2133 1.0896
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Penn State D1 BigTen FR 37 0 3 3 0.081
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.22
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.08
2025-26 · Penn State
-63.5% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

30%
NCAA D1
8%
NCAA D2/D3
22%
Age-Out / Club
40%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#4205
Defenseman overall
#1075
Defenseman born in 2004
#816
in OHL

D1 Comparables

Marc-Antoine Carrier
QMJHL · 2012-13 · 0.37 PPG
→ Brown (0.04 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Dominic Racobaldo
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.33 PPG
→ American International (0.12 D1 FR PPG)
0.18 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Brandon Carlson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Alabama-Huntsville (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.13 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Matt Krug
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.21 PPG
→ Union (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.11 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Benjamin Gallacher
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.45 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.50 D1 FR PPG)
0.24 Elite D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Bryan Black
SUNY Potsdam · 2008-09
0.818 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Jake Barkley
Neumann · 2023-24
0.893 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Nikita Kozyrev
Buffalo State · 2018-19
1.231 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.