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Justin Ertel Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2003-05-27 Country: Canada
2021 NHL Draft Round 3, Pick #79  ·  Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
Signed Professionally

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2022-23 — OHL 46 14 22 36 0.783 0.4541 0.4321 2.0054 1.9080
2023-24 — OHL 64 25 44 69 1.078 0.6256 0.5653 2.7626 2.4961
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2021-22 Cornell D1 ECAC — 23 1 8 9 0.391

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

22%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
62%
Age-Out / Club
15%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

D1 Comparables

Eric Scheid
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.94 PPG
→ Alaska Anchorage (0.50 D1 FR PPG)
0.52 Average
NCAAe PPG
Shane Sooth
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.95 PPG
→ Northern Michigan (0.45 D1 FR PPG)
0.52 Average
NCAAe PPG
Michael Huntebrinker
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.91 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.15 D1 FR PPG)
0.51 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Brandon Wahlin
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.33 PPG
→ UMass (0.13 D1 FR PPG)
0.50 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Todd Skirving
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.80 PPG
→ RIT (0.65 D1 FR PPG)
0.44 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Rihards Marenis
Aurora · 2013-14
1.000 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Jason Kalinowski
Endicott · 2015-16
1.310 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Zach Dill
Salem State · 2021-22
1.111 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.