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Owen Carlson Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Goalie DOB: 2001-12-04 Country: USA
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NCAA Division I

Save % Equivalency
Goals Against Average
Base SV%
Year Adj
Source
Confidence

NCAA D3 / D2

Save % Equivalency
Goals Against Average
Base SV%
Year Adj
Source
Confidence
Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw SV%  ·  Solid blue = age-adj SVe%  ·  Green = actual college SV%
Goalie Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP W L SV% GAA SO SVe Factor Age-Adj SV%
2021-22 NCDC 2 0 1 87.9% 3.67 0 0.9400 79.0%
2021-22 NA3HL 21 15 5 92.1% 2.23 3 0.9400 81.2%
2020-21 NA3HL 28 13 11 92.7% 2.68 2 0.9400 87.1%
2019-20 NA3HL 1 1 0 92.3% 1.50 0 0.9400 86.8%
2019-20 USHL 0.9980
SVe Factor = save% equivalency relative to NCAA D1 average  ·  COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div GP W L SV% GAA SO
2025-26 Lawrence D3 6 88.6% 3.75 1
2024-25 Lawrence D3
2023-24 Lawrence D3 14 88.4% 3.92 0
2022-23 Lawrence D3 18 3 12 90.2% 3.41
Goalie Comparables (D1)

Historical goalies with similar age-adjusted SVe profiles who went on to play NCAA D1.

Name Junior League Junior SV% Adj SVe College NCAA SV% NCAA GAA
Collin MacKenzie OHL 88.4% 79.5% RIT 81.5% 3.90
Kristoffer Eberly USHL 89.3% 80.5% Ohio State 91.1% 2.98
Vinnie Purpura USHL 87.9% 78.8% Boston University 86.0% 4.90
Christian Manz USHL 88.0% 79.9% Augustana 89.4% 2.84
Josh Fleming QMJHL 90.8% 81.4% Penn State 92.4% 2.61
Goalie Comparables (D2/D3)

Historical goalies with similar age-adjusted SVe profiles who went on to play NCAA D2/D3.

Name Junior League Junior SV% Adj SVe College Div SV% GAA
Nikolas Charles USPHL-Premier 89.1% 80.4% Roger Williams D3 85.4% 6.79
Sean Guerin NOJHL 90.2% 81.9% Southern New Hampshire D2 90.7% 3.28
Jeb Lindy USPHL-Premier 89.3% 81.3% Arcadia D3 89.6% 4.06
Dylan Dewatcher OJHL 86.3% 81.7% Western Connecticut D3 85.8% 5.91
Caleb Chabot CCHL 89.1% 84.2% Albertus Magnus D3 93.4% 1.79

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.