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Matt Rust Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1989-03-23 Country: USA
2007 · Round 4, Pick #101  ·  Florida Panthers Florida Panthers
No commitment set

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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2005-06 U.S. National U17 Team NTDP-U18 32 7 5 12 0.375 0.2787 0.2837 1.3993 1.4243
2006-07 U.S. National U18 Team NTDP-U18 33 3 11 14 0.424 0.3153 0.3090 1.5829 1.5514
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2010-11 Michigan D1 CCHA-orig SR 44 5 21 26 0.591
2009-10 Michigan D1 BigTen JR 45 13 27 40 0.889
2008-09 Michigan D1 BigTen SO 37 11 11 22 0.595
2007-08 Michigan D1 BigTen FR 38 12 11 23 0.605
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.26
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.61
2007-08 · Michigan
+136.6% vs. projection

NCAAe Rankings

#12572
Forward overall
#446
Forward born in 1989
#23
in NTDP-U18

D1 Comparables

Luke Stork
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.47 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.33 D1 FR PPG)
0.29 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Patrick Polino
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.40 PPG
→ RPI (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Scott Conway
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.95 PPG
→ Penn State (0.76 D1 FR PPG)
0.38 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Motte
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.65 PPG
→ Michigan (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.40 Average
NCAAe PPG
Garrett Gamez
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.39 PPG
→ Providence (0.25 D1 FR PPG)
0.24 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

James Tatro
Salem State · 2021-22
1.269 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Maxwell Donohoe
Neumann · 2021-22
1.500 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Chris Atkinson
Curry · 2005-06
0.962 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.