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Alex Guptill Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1992-03-05 Country: Canada
2010 · Round 3, Pick #77  ·  Dallas Stars Dallas Stars
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2008-09 Brampton Capitals OJHL 49 30 34 64 1.306 0.3201 0.3516 0.8992 0.9877
2009-10 — OJHL 29 19 18 37 1.276 0.3127 0.3271 0.8785 0.9189
2010-11 Waterloo Black Hawks USHL 43 13 12 25 0.581 0.3430 0.3394 1.7462 1.7278
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2013-14 Michigan D1 BigTen JR 31 12 13 25 0.806
2012-13 Michigan D1 CCHA-orig SO 38 16 20 36 0.947
2011-12 Michigan D1 CCHA-orig FR 41 16 17 33 0.805
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.29
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.80
2011-12 · Michigan
+181.1% vs. projection

NCAAe Rankings

#10699
Forward overall
#441
Forward born in 1992

D1 Comparables

Willem Nong-Lambert
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.59 PPG
→ Western Michigan (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Kyle Schmidt
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.57 PPG
→ Bentley (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.33 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Zach Aman
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.52 PPG
→ Colorado College (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.31 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Christian Heil
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.62 PPG
→ Colorado College (0.04 D1 FR PPG)
0.36 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Brian Morgan
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.53 PPG
→ Maine (0.35 D1 FR PPG)
0.31 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Colin Bella
Lake Forest · 2021-22
0.963 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Jason Yuel
Curry · 2005-06
1.769 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Cole Hepler
Lebanon Valley · 2014-15
1.280 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.