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Cruz Lucius Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2004-04-05 Country: USA
2022 NHL Draft Round 4, Pick #124  ·  Carolina Hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2020-21 — NTDP-U18 42 14 28 42 1.000 0.7754 0.7754 3.7219 3.7219
2021-22 — NTDP-U18 23 9 9 18 0.783 0.6068 0.5913 2.9128 2.8382
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Arizona State D1 NCHC SR 36 15 31 46 1.278
2024-25 Arizona State D1 NCHC — 19 2 8 10 0.526
2023-24 Wisconsin D1 BigTen — 36 13 21 34 0.944
2022-23 Wisconsin D1 BigTen — 34 11 23 34 1.000
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.55
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
1.00
2022-23 · Wisconsin
+81.7% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

88%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
2%
Age-Out / Club
10%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#5829
Forward overall
#184
Forward born in 2004

D1 Comparables

Sean Malone
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.87 PPG
→ Harvard (0.65 D1 FR PPG)
0.56 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Trevor Moore
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.02 PPG
→ Denver (0.76 D1 FR PPG)
0.65 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Gabe Guertler
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.85 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.55 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Motte
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.67 PPG
→ Michigan (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.50 Average
NCAAe PPG
Anthony Louis
NTDP-U18 · 2012-13 · 0.82 PPG
→ Miami (0.69 D1 FR PPG)
0.61 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Geordan Buffoline
New England · 2017-18
1.667 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Ryan Ellis
SUNY Oswego · 2004-05
1.704 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Joona Juntunen
Saint Mary's (MN) · 2023-24
0.826 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.