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Carter Patterson Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2003-11-13 Country: Canada
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 Tabor NE-Prep 28 1 7 8 0.286 0.0566 0.0566 0.1302 0.1302
2021-22 Tabor NE-Prep 20 3 16 19 0.950 0.1882 0.1882 0.4328 0.4328
2022-23 Blackfalds Bulldogs AJHL 32 1 9 10 0.312 0.1048 0.1046 0.2892 0.2887
2023-24 Blackfalds Bulldogs AJHL 46 7 26 33 0.717 0.2406 0.2289 0.6639 0.6315
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Canisius D1 AHA SO 35 2 7 9 0.257
2024-25 Canisius D1 AHA — 28 1 4 5 0.179
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.17
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.18
2024-25 · Canisius
+5.6% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

52%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
28%
Age-Out / Club
18%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#9762
Defenseman overall
#2129
Defenseman born in 2003

D1 Comparables

Nolan Valleau
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.41 PPG
→ Bowling Green
0.22 No data
NCAAe PPG
Brandon Kirk
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.32 PPG
→ Dartmouth
0.17 No data
NCAAe PPG
Patrick Koudys
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.23 PPG
→ RPI (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.13 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Benjamin Gallacher
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.45 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.50 D1 FR PPG)
0.24 Elite D
NCAAe PPG
Matt Van Voorhis
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.47 PPG
→ Denver (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.26 Developing D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Jason Ladzinski
Franklin Pierce · 2018-19
0.387 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Matt Hughes
Finlandia · 2007-08
1.286 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Colin Larkin
UMass Boston · 2013-14
1.000 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.