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Jak Vaarwerk Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2003-06-13 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 Buffalo Jr. Sabres OJHL 2 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2021-22 Philadelphia Rebels NAHL 56 18 35 53 0.946 0.3750 0.3932 0.9936 1.0419
2022-23 Des Moines Buccaneers USHL 61 13 32 45 0.738 0.4535 0.4335 2.1734 2.0775
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 UMass Lowell D1 HockeyEast JR 35 7 13 20 0.571
2024-25 UMass Lowell D1 HockeyEast JR 36 5 11 16 0.444
2023-24 UMass Lowell D1 HockeyEast SO 36 5 10 15 0.417
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.36
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.42
2023-24 · UMass Lowell
+16.6% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

80%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
8%
Age-Out / Club
8%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#7881
Forward overall
#308
Forward born in 2003

D1 Comparables

Robbie Payne
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.12 PPG
→ Northern Michigan (0.29 D1 FR PPG)
0.44 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Heinonen
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.74 PPG
→ Michigan Tech (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.43 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Biggs
OHL · 2012-13 · 0.88 PPG
→ Miami (0.46 D1 FR PPG)
0.49 Average
NCAAe PPG
Riley Bourbonnais
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.78 PPG
→ RPI (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.46 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Kevin Irwin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.56 PPG
→ Vermont (0.47 D1 FR PPG)
0.33 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Justin Fox
Salem State · 2006-07
1.429 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Ryan Ellis
SUNY Oswego · 2003-04
1.704 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Neil Trimm
Neumann · 2002-03
1.800 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.