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Payton Nelson Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-01-17 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2022-23 — USHL 41 2 5 7 0.171 0.1007 0.1043 0.5122 0.5306
2023-24 Des Moines Buccaneers USHL 29 1 1 2 0.069 0.0407 0.0401 0.2070 0.2041
2024-25 Salmon Arm Silverbacks BCHL 53 11 6 17 0.321 0.1236 0.1189 0.4666 0.4489
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2026-27 Denver D1 NCHC SO 0 0 0 0 0.000
2025-26 Denver D1 NCHC FR 11 1 0 1 0.091
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.07
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.09
2025-26 · Denver
+21.5% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

15%
NCAA D1
12%
NCAA D2/D3
30%
Age-Out / Club
42%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#42949
Forward overall
#2750
Forward born in 2005

D1 Comparables

Cullen Hurley
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.38 PPG
→ Wisconsin
0.21 No data
NCAAe PPG
Tayler Munson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.31 PPG
→ Alaska Fairbanks (0.35 D1 FR PPG)
0.17 Average
NCAAe PPG
Stanislav Dzakhov
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.27 PPG
→ Niagara (0.44 D1 FR PPG)
0.15 Average
NCAAe PPG
Alexander Dahl
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.38 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.21 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Max Birkinbine
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.46 PPG
→ Air Force (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Tristan Simm
Chatham · 2016-17
0.480 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Niko Happo
Manhattanville · 2016-17
0.518 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Troy Boisjoli
St. Norbert · 2001-02
0.435 Average
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.