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Joe Connor Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-03-31 Country: USA
2024 · Round 7, Pick #195  ·  Tampa Bay Lightning Tampa Bay Lightning
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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2020-21 Avon Old Farms NE-Prep 4 0 1 1 0.250 0.0495 0.0495 0.1139 0.1139
2021-22 Avon Old Farms NE-Prep 26 13 12 25 0.962 0.1905 0.1905 0.4381 0.4381
2022-23 — USHL 12 1 5 6 0.500 0.2949 0.3084 1.5017 1.5705
2023-24 Muskegon Lumberjacks USHL 50 31 29 60 1.200 0.7079 0.7052 3.6041 3.5904
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Northeastern D1 HockeyEast SO 36 13 14 27 0.750
2024-25 Northeastern D1 HockeyEast — 37 7 10 17 0.460
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.51
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.46
2024-25 · Northeastern
-9.7% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

90%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
2%
Age-Out / Club
8%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#5031
Forward overall
#133
Forward born in 2005

D1 Comparables

Dennis Kravchenko
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.11 PPG
→ UMass (0.92 D1 FR PPG)
0.65 Elite
NCAAe PPG
Vinnie Hinostroza
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.30 PPG
→ Notre Dame (0.94 D1 FR PPG)
0.76 Elite
NCAAe PPG
Peter Quenneville
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.11 PPG
→ Quinnipiac (0.80 D1 FR PPG)
0.65 Elite
NCAAe PPG
Nick Schilkey
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.20 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.70 D1 FR PPG)
0.71 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Dominic Toninato
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.09 PPG
→ Minnesota Duluth (0.43 D1 FR PPG)
0.64 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Arkhip Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Neil Trimm
Neumann · 2003-04
1.800 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Filimon Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.