IcePath icepath.io · Hockey Analytics
← New Search ↗ Social Card

Matthew Rafalski Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2004-06-12 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 RB Hockey Academy U18 USHL-Style-Czech 24 1 9 10 0.417 0.1311 0.1368 0.4586 0.4785
2022-23 Green Bay Gamblers USHL 32 1 4 5 0.156 0.0960 0.0966 0.4602 0.4629
2023-24 Bismarck Bobcats NAHL 53 8 27 35 0.660 0.2617 0.2621 0.6934 0.6946
2024-25 Bismarck Bobcats NAHL 57 10 28 38 0.667 0.2641 0.2507 0.7000 0.6645
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Stonehill D1 AHA FR 33 1 7 8 0.242
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.24
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.24
2025-26 · Stonehill
0.6% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

52%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
32%
Age-Out / Club
10%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#5344
Defenseman overall
#1366
Defenseman born in 2004

D1 Comparables

Dominic Racobaldo
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.33 PPG
→ American International (0.12 D1 FR PPG)
0.18 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Brandon Carlson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Alabama-Huntsville (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.13 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Matt Krug
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.21 PPG
→ Union (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.12 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Marc-Antoine Carrier
QMJHL · 2012-13 · 0.37 PPG
→ Brown (0.04 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Developing D
NCAAe PPG
Benjamin Gallacher
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.45 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.50 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Elite D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Larry Jungwirth
Aurora · 2017-18
0.778 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Michael Thompson
Milwaukee School of Engineering · 2004-05
0.741 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Don Olivieri
Utica · 2011-12
0.815 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.