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Carter Ernst Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2008-04-28 Country: USA
St. Thomas
NCHC D1

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2023-24 Lakeville South USHS-MN 27 6 3 9 0.333 0.0422 0.0422 0.0809 0.0809
2024-25 Lakeville South USHS-MN 30 27 34 61 2.033 0.2574 0.2574 0.4937 0.4937
2025-26 Cedar Rapids RoughRiders USHL 19 3 3 6 0.316 0.1863 0.1958 0.9476 0.9957
2026-27 Cedar Rapids RoughRiders USHL 7 2 8 10 1.429 0.8427 0.8427 4.2868 4.2868
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

88%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
2%
Age-Out / Club
10%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#12301
Forward overall
#172
Forward born in 2008

D1 Comparables

Vinnie Hinostroza
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.30 PPG
→ Notre Dame (0.94 D1 FR PPG)
0.76 Elite
NCAAe PPG
Nick Schilkey
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.20 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.70 D1 FR PPG)
0.71 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Zach Stepan
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.39 PPG
→ Minnesota State (0.60 D1 FR PPG)
0.81 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Justin Kloos
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.61 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.78 D1 FR PPG)
0.93 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Jake Guentzel
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.22 PPG
→ Nebraska Omaha (0.92 D1 FR PPG)
0.73 Elite
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Arkhip Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Neil Trimm
Neumann · 2003-04
1.800 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Filimon Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.