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Carter Ernst Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2008-04-28 Country: USA
St. Thomas
NCHC D1

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2023-24 Lakeville South USHS-MN 27 6 3 9 0.333 0.0422 0.0422 0.0810 0.0810
2024-25 Lakeville South USHS-MN 30 27 34 61 2.033 0.2574 0.2574 0.4939 0.4939
2025-26 Cedar Rapids RoughRiders USHL 19 3 3 6 0.316 0.1863 0.1958 0.9485 0.9966
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

57%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
18%
Age-Out / Club
20%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#12078
Forward overall
#140
Forward born in 2008

D1 Comparables

Patrick Polino
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.40 PPG
→ RPI (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Drew Callin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Bentley (0.34 D1 FR PPG)
0.15 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Dylan McLaughlin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.33 PPG
→ Canisius (0.67 D1 FR PPG)
0.20 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Nick Hutchison
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.20 PPG
→ Canisius (0.65 D1 FR PPG)
0.12 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Zach Evancho
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.26 PPG
→ Army (0.62 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Strong
NCAAe PPG

St. Thomas Alumni similar profiles who attended this school

Attila Lippai
USHS-MN 2022-23
0.19
actual FR PPG at St. Thomas
Casy Laylin
USHS-MN 2019-20
0.29
actual FR PPG at St. Thomas
Jake Braccini
USHS-MN 2019-20
0.53
actual FR PPG at St. Thomas
Kyler Grundy
NAHL 2017-18
0.39
actual FR PPG at St. Thomas

D2/3 Comparables

Lucas Michaud
Trinity · 2014-15
0.893 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Paul Rodrigues
SUNY Oswego · 2006-07
0.893 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Richard Manley
SUNY Geneseo · 2007-08
1.150 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.