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Dawson Ellis Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1999-07-11 Country: Canada
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2016-17 Wellington Dukes OJHL 2 1 0 1 0.500 0.1226 0.1312 0.3443 0.3684
2017-18 Wellington Dukes OJHL 44 3 3 6 0.136 0.0334 0.0341 0.0939 0.0960
2018-19 Wellington Dukes OJHL 51 8 11 19 0.372 0.0913 0.0888 0.2565 0.2496
2019-20 Wellington Dukes OJHL 51 14 27 41 0.804 0.1970 0.1970 0.5535 0.5535
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2023-24 University of New England D3 CNE — 16 2 2 4 0.250
2022-23 University of New England D3 CNE — 24 3 5 8 0.333
2021-22 Adrian D3 NCHA — 4 0 4 4 1.000
2020-21 Adrian D1 NCHA FR 14 2 4 6 0.429
2020-21 Adrian D3 NCHA — 14 2 4 6 0.429
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.06
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.43
2020-21 · Adrian
+648.0% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

25%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
20%
Age-Out / Club
50%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#36020
Forward overall
#1964
Forward born in 1999
#2126
in OJHL

D1 Comparables

Josh Erickson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.21 PPG
→ Alaska Fairbanks (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.12 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Ben Greiner
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.17 PPG
→ Bowling Green (0.38 D1 FR PPG)
0.10 Average
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Spezia
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.26 PPG
→ Bowling Green (0.25 D1 FR PPG)
0.15 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Zach Saar
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.33 PPG
→ Penn State (0.33 D1 FR PPG)
0.19 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Matt Pohlkamp
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.33 PPG
→ Bowling Green (0.41 D1 FR PPG)
0.19 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

David Cohen
Lake Forest · 2017-18
0.640 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Matthew Shaw
Marian · 2021-22
0.000 No data
actual D2/3 PPG
Corey Chakeen
UMass Boston · 2008-09
0.538 Average
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.