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Jay O'Brien Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1999-11-04 Country: USA
2018 · Round 1, Pick #19  ·  Philadelphia Flyers Philadelphia Flyers
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2016-17 Youngstown Phantoms USHL 4 0 1 1 0.250 0.1475 0.1592 0.7509 0.8105
2017-18 U.S. National U18 Team NTDP-U18 7 1 1 2 0.286 0.2124 0.2019 1.0661 1.0134
2019-20 Penticton Vees BCHL 46 25 41 66 1.435 0.5528 0.5528 2.0881 2.0881
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2022-23 Boston University D1 HockeyEast — 39 8 24 32 0.821
2021-22 Boston University D1 HockeyEast — 24 10 12 22 0.917
2020-21 Boston University D1 HockeyEast — 16 8 8 16 1.000
2018-19 Providence D1 HockeyEast FR 25 2 3 5 0.200
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.16
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.20
2018-19 · Providence
+26.4% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

20%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
80%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#5047
Forward overall
#205
Forward born in 1999

D1 Comparables

Matt Gaudreau
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.33 PPG
→ Boston College (0.12 D1 FR PPG)
0.20 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Jake Horton
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.43 PPG
→ Harvard (0.24 D1 FR PPG)
0.26 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Ian Mansfield
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.23 PPG
→ Army (0.23 D1 FR PPG)
0.14 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Mitch Hults
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.46 PPG
→ Lake Superior State (0.50 D1 FR PPG)
0.28 Average
NCAAe PPG
Thomas Ebbing
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.45 PPG
→ Michigan State (0.25 D1 FR PPG)
0.27 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Richard Manley
SUNY Geneseo · 2007-08
1.150 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Matt Wiesner
Babson · 2015-16
0.885 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Paul Rodrigues
SUNY Oswego · 2006-07
0.893 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.