IcePath icepath.io · Hockey Analytics
← New Search ↗ Social Card

Ryan O'Reilly Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2000-03-21 Country: USA
2018 NHL Draft Round 4, Pick #98  ·  Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2016-17 Madison Capitols USHL 7 0 1 1 0.143 0.0878 0.0964 0.4210 0.4624
2017-18 Madison Capitols USHL 45 21 13 34 0.756 0.4645 0.4871 2.2261 2.3345
2018-19 — USHL 57 14 17 31 0.544 0.3343 0.3333 1.6024 1.5977
2019-20 Green Bay Gamblers USHL 43 17 15 32 0.744 0.4575 0.4575 2.1926 2.1926
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2024-25 Providence D1 HockeyEast — 26 6 3 9 0.346
2023-24 Arizona State D1 NCHC SR 37 9 6 15 0.405
2022-23 Arizona State D1 NCHC JR 36 8 8 16 0.444
2021-22 Arizona State D1 — SO 31 6 5 11 0.355
2020-21 Arizona State D1 — FR 23 3 10 13 0.565
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.34
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.57
2020-21 · Arizona State
+67.2% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

80%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
20%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#7930
Forward overall
#320
Forward born in 2000
#665
in USHL

D1 Comparables

Kyle Schmidt
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.57 PPG
→ Bentley (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Brian Morgan
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.53 PPG
→ Maine (0.35 D1 FR PPG)
0.32 Average
NCAAe PPG
Jack Rowe
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.53 PPG
→ Arizona State (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.32 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Willem Nong-Lambert
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.59 PPG
→ Western Michigan (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.36 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Zach Aman
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.52 PPG
→ Colorado College (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.32 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

John Moncovich
Utica · 2016-17
0.864 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Brett Gravelle
St. Thomas · 2014-15
0.923 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Beau Moyer
Wisconsin-Superior · 2000-01
0.708 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.