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Justin Kelley Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1998-08-23 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2014-15 Maple Grove High USHS-MN 25 6 2 8 0.320 0.0861 0.0881 0.0777 0.0795
2017-18 — NAHL 42 5 6 11 0.262 0.0972 0.0973 0.2773 0.2776
2018-19 Minot Minotauros NAHL 55 15 18 33 0.600 0.2228 0.2130 0.6353 0.6075
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2023-24 Bethel D3 MIAC — 27 4 17 21 0.778
2022-23 Bethel D3 MIAC — 25 8 9 17 0.680
2020-21 St. Thomas D3 — SO 9 1 5 6 0.667
2019-20 St. Thomas D3 — FR 26 10 3 13 0.500
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.14
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.50
2019-20 · St. Thomas
+250.4% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

10%
NCAA D1
52%
NCAA D2/D3
38%
Age-Out / Club
0%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#27361
Forward overall
#1153
Forward born in 1998

D1 Comparables

Woody Hudson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.43 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Jayson Angus
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.66 PPG
→ Lake Superior State (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.23 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Cody Marooney
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.65 PPG
→ Alabama-Huntsville (0.11 D1 FR PPG)
0.23 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Ryan Doucet
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.73 PPG
→ Air Force (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.26 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Beau Walker
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.00 PPG
→ Sacred Heart (0.40 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Tanner Karty
Wisconsin-Stevens Point · 2014-15
0.833 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Bret Adams
Curry · 2002-03
1.759 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Jesse Horacek
SUNY Oswego · 2023-24
0.800 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.