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Justin Kelley Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1998-08-23 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2014-15 Maple Grove High USHS-MN 25 6 2 8 0.320 0.0405 0.0414 0.0777 0.0795
2017-18 — NAHL 42 5 6 11 0.262 0.0962 0.0963 0.2764 0.2767
2018-19 Minot Minotauros NAHL 55 15 18 33 0.600 0.2204 0.2108 0.6333 0.6056
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2023-24 Bethel D3 MIAC — 27 4 17 21 0.778
2022-23 Bethel D3 MIAC — 25 8 9 17 0.680
2020-21 St. Thomas D3 CCHA SO 9 1 5 6 0.667
2019-20 St. Thomas D3 CCHA FR 26 10 3 13 0.500
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.14
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.50
2019-20 · St. Thomas
+254.1% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

55%
NCAA D1
15%
NCAA D2/D3
28%
Age-Out / Club
2%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#34570
Forward overall
#1733
Forward born in 1998

D1 Comparables

Woody Hudson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.43 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.23 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Eli Lichtenwald
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.36 PPG
→ Union (0.68 D1 FR PPG)
0.19 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Emil Romig
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.00 PPG
→ Denver (0.31 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Justin Parizek
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.93 PPG
→ Nebraska Omaha (0.22 D1 FR PPG)
0.32 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Davey Middleton
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.50 PPG
→ Brown (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.27 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Tanner Karty
Wisconsin-Stevens Point · 2014-15
0.833 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Kurtis Astle
St. Norbert · 2006-07
0.375 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Ryan Corry
SUNY Plattsburgh · 2006-07
0.900 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.