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Matthew Guerra Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1999-05-21 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2018-19 Lone Star Brahmas NAHL 58 12 41 53 0.914 0.3357 0.3335 0.9658 0.9593
2019-20 Lone Star Brahmas NAHL 51 18 45 63 1.235 0.4538 0.4538 1.3056 1.3056
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2024-25 Sacred Heart D1 AHA — 39 7 12 19 0.487
2023-24 Holy Cross D1 AHA — 38 8 17 25 0.658
2022-23 Holy Cross D1 AHA — 41 7 16 23 0.561
2021-22 Holy Cross D1 AHA — 36 7 11 18 0.500
2020-21 Robert Morris D1 AHA FR 16 3 4 7 0.438
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.29
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.44
2020-21 · Robert Morris
+53.2% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

65%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
12%
Age-Out / Club
20%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#7659
Forward overall
#340
Forward born in 1999
#109
in NAHL

D1 Comparables

Jay Dickman
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.00 PPG
→ Bemidji State
0.36 No data
NCAAe PPG
Luc Gerdes
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.80 PPG
→ Colorado College (0.25 D1 FR PPG)
0.29 Developing
NCAAe PPG
John Simonson
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.97 PPG
→ North Dakota (0.23 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Garret Clemment
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.93 PPG
→ Lake Superior State (0.43 D1 FR PPG)
0.34 Average
NCAAe PPG
Brett Skibba
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.00 PPG
→ UConn (0.23 D1 FR PPG)
0.36 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Matt Galati
SUNY Oswego · 2011-12
1.241 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Adam Stacho
St. Norbert · 2018-19
0.900 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Ty Enns
Marian · 2017-18
0.923 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.