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Lucas Karlsson Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2005-04-25 Country: Sweden
⚠️ Aging Out 2025-26: Turns 20 before Dec 31, 2025 — final eligible junior season.
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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2022-23 New Jersey Jr. Titans NAHL 5 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2023-24 New Jersey Jr. Titans NAHL 6 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2024-25 Idaho Falls Spud Kings NCDC 39 1 13 14 0.359 0.0830 0.0826 0.2903 0.2890
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Stevenson D3 MAC FR 27 0 4 4 0.148
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.08
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.15
2025-26 · Stevenson
+80.8% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

38%
NCAA D2/D3
0%
Club / ACHA
38%
Other

NCAAe Rankings

#7819
Defenseman overall
#1837
Defenseman born in 2005

D1 Comparables

Cameron McDonald
QMJHL · 2012-13 · 0.11 PPG
→ Providence (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.05 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Dan Molenaar
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Minnesota Duluth (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.13 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Aleksi Rossi
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.15 PPG
→ Brown
0.08 No data
NCAAe PPG
Johnny Hrabovsky
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Air Force (0.26 D1 FR PPG)
0.13 Average D
NCAAe PPG
James Roll
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.22 PPG
→ Lake Superior State (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.12 Average D
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Travis Quigley
Southern New Hampshire · 2016-17
0.333 Developing
actual D2/3 PPG
Bailey Conklin
Canton · 2017-18
0.375 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Joey Moore
Hamilton · 2017-18
0.480 Average
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.