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Kyle Arias Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-04-12 Country: USA
⚠️ Aging Out 2025-26: Turns 20 before Dec 31, 2025 — final eligible junior season.
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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2023-24 El Paso Rhinos NAHL 29 4 6 10 0.345 0.1280 0.1335 0.3651 0.3809
2024-25 El Paso Rhinos NAHL 56 11 22 33 0.589 0.2188 0.2168 0.6240 0.6183
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Saint Mary's D3 MIAC FR 24 5 12 17 0.708
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.16
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.71
2025-26 · Saint Mary's
+350.9% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

28%
NCAA D1
22%
NCAA D2/D3
30%
Age-Out / Club
20%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#21570
Forward overall
#1213
Forward born in 2005
#2142
in NAHL

D1 Comparables

Sami Salminen
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.56 PPG
→ Northern Michigan (0.34 D1 FR PPG)
0.21 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Poulsen
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.60 PPG
→ Alabama-Huntsville (0.21 D1 FR PPG)
0.22 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tommy Schutt
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.37 PPG
→ Quinnipiac (0.28 D1 FR PPG)
0.22 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Gage Hough
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.39 PPG
→ UMass Lowell (0.12 D1 FR PPG)
0.24 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Kyle Bauman
NAHL · 2012-13 · 0.70 PPG
→ Bemidji State (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.26 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Brett Everson
Utica · 2015-16
0.895 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Jeff Affleck
Northland · 2000-01
0.750 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Kelby Lorenz
Southern Maine · 2011-12
0.750 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.