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Kyle Arias Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-04-12 Country: USA
No commitment set

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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2023-24 El Paso Rhinos NAHL 29 4 6 10 0.345 0.1267 0.1322 0.3639 0.3797
2024-25 El Paso Rhinos NAHL 56 11 22 33 0.589 0.2165 0.2145 0.6220 0.6163
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Saint Mary's (MN) D3 MIAC FR 24 5 12 17 0.708
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.16
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.71
2025-26 · Saint Mary's (MN)
+355.8% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

40%
NCAA D1
10%
NCAA D2/D3
18%
Age-Out / Club
32%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#21935
Forward overall
#1210
Forward born in 2005
#1584
in NAHL

D1 Comparables

Gage Hough
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.39 PPG
→ UMass Lowell (0.12 D1 FR PPG)
0.22 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tommy Schutt
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.37 PPG
→ Quinnipiac (0.28 D1 FR PPG)
0.21 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Evan Janssen
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.45 PPG
→ Denver (0.14 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Eric Freschi
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.51 PPG
→ Cornell (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.28 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Stanislav Dzakhov
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.27 PPG
→ Niagara (0.44 D1 FR PPG)
0.15 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Matt Kroska
St. Olaf · 2012-13
0.375 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Kelby Lorenz
Southern Maine · 2011-12
0.750 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
John Doyle
SUNY Morrisville · 2011-12
0.875 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.