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Carson Pavlowich Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Defense DOB: 2006-05-25 Country: USA
⚠️ Aging Out 2026-27: Turns 20 before Dec 31, 2026 — final eligible junior season.
Air Force
AHA D1

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 Proctor USHS-MN 25 11 13 24 0.960 0.1215 0.1215 0.2332 0.2332
2022-23 Proctor USHS-MN 25 8 14 22 0.880 0.1114 0.1114 0.2138 0.2138
2023-24 Proctor USHS-MN 27 6 30 36 1.333 0.1688 0.1688 0.3239 0.3239
2024-25 Colorado Grit NAHL 48 3 8 11 0.229 0.0842 0.0881 0.2419 0.2532
2025-26 West Kelowna Warriors BCHL 54 2 13 15 0.278 0.1070 0.1062 0.4043 0.4013
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

12%
NCAA D1
15%
NCAA D2/D3
30%
Age-Out / Club
40%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#16469
Defenseman overall
#2872
Defenseman born in 2006

D1 Comparables

James Roll
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.22 PPG
→ Lake Superior State (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.12 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Dan Molenaar
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Minnesota Duluth (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.13 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Cameron McDonald
QMJHL · 2012-13 · 0.11 PPG
→ Providence (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.05 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Johnny Hrabovsky
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Air Force (0.26 D1 FR PPG)
0.13 Average D
NCAAe PPG
Victor Björkung
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.37 PPG
→ Ohio State (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.20 Average D
NCAAe PPG

Air Force Alumni similar profiles who attended this school

Calvin Beard
NE-Prep 2021-22
0.00
actual FR PPG at Air Force
Simon Houge
USHS-MN 2021-22
0.08
actual FR PPG at Air Force
Matthew Burchill
BCHL 2015-16
0.00
actual FR PPG at Air Force
Beau Janzig
USHS-MN 2021-22
0.12
actual FR PPG at Air Force

D2/3 Comparables

Nolan Ring
Fredonia · 2022-23
0.462 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Jimmy Petuch
King's · 2018-19
0.000 No data
actual D2/3 PPG
Austin Braley
Salem State · 2016-17
0.000 No data
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.