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Rutger McGroarty Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2004-03-30 Country: USA
2022 NHL Draft Round 1, Pick #14  ·  Winnipeg Jets Winnipeg Jets
Signed Professionally

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2020-21 — NTDP-U18 53 20 21 41 0.774 0.5998 0.5998 2.8793 2.8793
2021-22 — NTDP-U18 54 35 34 69 1.278 0.9908 0.9646 4.7558 4.6300
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2023-24 Michigan D1 BigTen — 36 16 36 52 1.444
2022-23 Michigan D1 BigTen — 39 18 21 39 1.000
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.96
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
1.00
2022-23 · Michigan
+4.2% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 38 comparables)

⭐ Elite profile — high probability of D1 placement; comparable to top-end prospects
82%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
3%
Age-Out / Club
16%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

D1 Comparables

Taylor Cammarata
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.58 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.69 D1 FR PPG)
1.02 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Zach Stepan
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.39 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.60 D1 FR PPG)
0.84 Strong
NCAAe PPG
Justin Kloos
USHL · 2012-13 · 1.61 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.78 D1 FR PPG)
0.97 Strong
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Arkhip Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Neil Trimm
Neumann · 2003-04
1.800 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Filimon Ledenkov
St. Scholastica · 2018-19
1.636 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.