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Jake Karabela Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2004-03-07 Country: Canada
2022 · Round 5, Pick #149  ·  Washington Capitals Washington Capitals
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 Guelph Storm OHL 68 12 33 45 0.662 0.3829 0.3958 1.7005 1.7578
2022-23 Guelph Storm OHL 68 18 21 39 0.574 0.3318 0.3286 1.4736 1.4595
2023-24 Guelph Storm OHL 65 25 30 55 0.846 0.4895 0.4614 2.1743 2.0495
2024-25 Guelph Storm OHL 48 11 21 32 0.667 0.3857 0.3437 1.7131 1.5263
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Ohio State D1 BigTen FR 37 15 22 37 1.000
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.33
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
1.00
2025-26 · Ohio State
+199.0% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

48%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
35%
Age-Out / Club
15%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#8886
Forward overall
#333
Forward born in 2004
#440
in OHL

D1 Comparables

David Goodwin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.67 PPG
→ Penn State (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Average
NCAAe PPG
Carlos Amestoy
OHL · 2012-13 · 0.75 PPG
→ Maine
0.39 No data
NCAAe PPG
Dylan Walchuk
WHL · 2012-13 · 0.86 PPG
→ Northern Michigan (0.42 D1 FR PPG)
0.37 Average
NCAAe PPG
Jordan Nelson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.59 PPG
→ Minnesota State (0.22 D1 FR PPG)
0.31 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Yasin Cissé
QMJHL · 2012-13 · 0.52 PPG
→ Boston University
0.23 No data
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Ryan Cusin
UMass Boston · 2015-16
1.600 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Josh Hechter
Saint Anselm · 2002-03
1.375 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Jake Cox
Southern New Hampshire · 2017-18
0.808 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.