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Nathan Adrian Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 1999-12-17 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2018-19 Winnipeg Blues MJHL 53 17 15 32 0.604 0.1162 0.1169 0.3805 0.3830
2019-20 Minnesota Wilderness NAHL 50 6 7 13 0.260 0.0924 0.0924 0.2730 0.2730
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2024-25 St. Scholastica D3 MIAC GR 14 7 7 14 1.000
2023-24 St. Scholastica D3 MIAC SR 25 9 14 23 0.920
2022-23 St. Scholastica D3 MIAC JR 24 14 13 27 1.125
2021-22 St. Scholastica D3 MIAC SO 22 10 4 14 0.636
2020-21 St. Scholastica D1 — FR 15 3 6 9 0.600
2020-21 St. Scholastica D3 — FR 15 3 6 9 0.600
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.10
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.60
2020-21 · St. Scholastica
+499.4% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

32%
NCAA D1
15%
NCAA D2/D3
12%
Age-Out / Club
40%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#40772
Forward overall
#2309
Forward born in 1999

D1 Comparables

Sebastian Weberg
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.23 PPG
→ Colgate
0.13 No data
NCAAe PPG
Canon Pieper
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.28 PPG
→ Quinnipiac (0.08 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Austin Vieth
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.31 PPG
→ Alaska Fairbanks (0.28 D1 FR PPG)
0.18 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tyler Hynes
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.28 PPG
→ Union (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tim Lappin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.24 PPG
→ Brown (0.50 D1 FR PPG)
0.14 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Samuel Ayd
Wisconsin-Stevens Point · 2018-19
0.000 No data
actual D2/3 PPG
Chris Stevenson
Franklin Pierce · 2017-18
0.421 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Scott Dawson
Nazareth · 2010-11
0.680 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.