IcePath icepath.io · Hockey Analytics
← New Search ↗ Social Card

Luke Schelter Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2004-04-06 Country: USA
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2020-21 Portland Winterhawks WHL 6 0 1 1 0.167 0.0811 0.0811 0.4085 0.4085
2021-22 Portland Winterhawks WHL 62 9 17 26 0.419 0.2040 0.2123 1.0277 1.0696
2022-23 Portland Winterhawks WHL 52 8 6 14 0.269 0.1310 0.1302 0.6596 0.6557
2023-24 Kelowna Rockets WHL 65 14 15 29 0.446 0.2171 0.2051 1.0933 1.0330
2024-25 Fargo Force USHL 52 10 19 29 0.558 0.3428 0.3072 1.6431 1.4723
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 St. Thomas D1 CCHA FR 6 0 1 1 0.167
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.23
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.17
2025-26 · St. Thomas
-26.9% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

45%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
52%
Age-Out / Club
0%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#20562
Forward overall
#1112
Forward born in 2004

D1 Comparables

Jordan Nelson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.59 PPG
→ Minnesota (0.22 D1 FR PPG)
0.32 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Carlos Amestoy
OHL · 2012-13 · 0.75 PPG
→ Maine
0.39 No data
NCAAe PPG
Yasin Cissé
QMJHL · 2012-13 · 0.52 PPG
→ Boston University
0.23 No data
NCAAe PPG
Davey Middleton
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.50 PPG
→ Brown (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.28 Developing
NCAAe PPG
David Goodwin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.67 PPG
→ Penn State (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.37 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

A.J. Tucker
St. Scholastica · 2004-05
1.111 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Devin Panzeca
SUNY Potsdam · 2017-18
0.667 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Bradley Somers
Adrian · 2021-22
0.871 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.