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Carson Birnie Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-02-22 Country: Canada
⚠️ Aging Out 2025-26: Turns 20 before Dec 31, 2025 — final eligible junior season.
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NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2021-22 Estevan Bruins SJHL 0 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2022-23 Red Deer Rebels WHL 56 8 7 15 0.268 0.1303 0.1353 0.6564 0.6815
2023-24 Red Deer Rebels WHL 59 14 12 26 0.441 0.2144 0.2120 1.0798 1.0678
2024-25 Calgary Hitmen WHL 68 11 15 26 0.382 0.1860 0.1740 0.9370 0.8766
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Michigan Tech D1 CCHA FR 38 4 4 8 0.210
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.16
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.21
2025-26 · Michigan Tech
+29.9% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

18%
NCAA D1
10%
NCAA D2/D3
62%
Age-Out / Club
10%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#30992
Forward overall
#1836
Forward born in 2005

D1 Comparables

Tayler Munson
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.31 PPG
→ Alaska Fairbanks (0.35 D1 FR PPG)
0.18 Average
NCAAe PPG
Alexander Dahl
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.38 PPG
→ St. Lawrence (0.30 D1 FR PPG)
0.22 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Stanislav Dzakhov
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.27 PPG
→ Niagara (0.44 D1 FR PPG)
0.16 Average
NCAAe PPG
Gage Hough
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.39 PPG
→ UMass Lowell (0.12 D1 FR PPG)
0.23 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Ben Ostlie
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.23 PPG
→ Notre Dame
0.13 No data
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Patrick Jobb
SUNY Plattsburgh · 2008-09
0.556 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Adam Kudynski
Lebanon Valley · 2003-04
0.909 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Arlen Marshall
Manhattanville · 2004-05
0.840 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.