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Jaroslav Chmelar Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2003-07-20 Country: Czechia
2021 NHL Draft Round 5, Pick #144  ·  New York Rangers New York Rangers
Signed Professionally

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2019-20 — SM-Liiga-Jr 3 1 0 1 0.333 0.1804 0.1804 0.4950 0.4950
2020-21 — SM-Liiga-Jr 3 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2021-22 — SM-Liiga-Jr 39 9 9 18 0.462 0.2498 0.2592 0.6854 0.7111
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2023-24 Providence D1 HockeyEast — 26 5 10 15 0.577
2022-23 Providence D1 HockeyEast — 33 7 6 13 0.394
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.22
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.39
2022-23 · Providence
+77.5% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

22%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
20%
Age-Out / Club
52%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

D1 Comparables

Nate Arentz
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.41 PPG
→ Bemidji State (0.35 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Max Shuart
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.43 PPG
→ Michigan
0.26 No data
NCAAe PPG
Jarrid Privitera
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.46 PPG
→ Vermont (0.33 D1 FR PPG)
0.29 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Alex Rauter
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.41 PPG
→ Cornell (0.40 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Average
NCAAe PPG
Zach Aston-Reese
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.50 PPG
→ Northeastern (0.54 D1 FR PPG)
0.31 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Jason Kalinowski
Endicott · 2013-14
1.310 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Ken McLean
Manhattanville · 2015-16
0.625 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Reid Pehrkon
Babson · 2024-25
0.238 Developing
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.