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Pavel Mckenzie Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2005-10-08 Country: Canada
Alaska Fairbanks
Ind. D1

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2022-23 Yorkton Terriers SJHL 46 14 15 29 0.630 0.1615 0.1789 0.4752 0.5263
2023-24 Moose Jaw Warriors WHL 63 15 21 36 0.571 0.2780 0.2836 1.4020 1.4303
2024-25 Moose Jaw Warriors WHL 68 17 30 47 0.691 0.3363 0.3251 1.6960 1.6395
2025-26 Moose Jaw Warriors WHL 65 17 49 66 1.015 0.4940 0.4547 2.4915 2.2932
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

40%
NCAA D1
2%
NCAA D2/D3
15%
Age-Out / Club
42%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#9516
Forward overall
#399
Forward born in 2005

D1 Comparables

Sean Gaffney
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.14 PPG
→ UConn (0.18 D1 FR PPG)
0.40 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Jared VanWormer
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.27 PPG
→ Ferris State (0.19 D1 FR PPG)
0.44 Developing
NCAAe PPG
A.J. Reid
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.18 PPG
→ Air Force (0.26 D1 FR PPG)
0.41 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Tim Bonner
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.89 PPG
→ Yale
0.48 No data
NCAAe PPG
Jonathan Davis
NAHL · 2012-13 · 1.03 PPG
→ Nebraska Omaha (0.06 D1 FR PPG)
0.36 Developing
NCAAe PPG

Alaska Fairbanks Alumni similar profiles who attended this school

Jakob Breault
NAHL 2019-20
0.00
actual FR PPG at Alaska Fairbanks
Tyler Cline
NAHL 2015-16
0.40
actual FR PPG at Alaska Fairbanks
Harrison Israels
OJHL 2019-20
0.00
actual FR PPG at Alaska Fairbanks
Tommy Cronin
NAHL 2024-25
0.89
actual FR PPG at Alaska Fairbanks

D2/3 Comparables

Donny Flynn
Wilkes · 2016-17
1.423 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG
Jared Goudreau
Southern New Hampshire · 2014-15
0.833 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Lucas Signoretti
Buffalo State · 2024-25
1.120 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.