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McKay Hayes Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2002-01-27 Country: Canada
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2017-18 Caledon Admirals OJHL 2 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2018-19 Burlington Cougars OJHL 13 1 1 2 0.154 0.0462 0.0508 0.1053 0.1159
2019-20 Milton Menace OJHL 51 9 16 25 0.490 0.1473 0.1473 0.3355 0.3355
2020-21 Spruce Grove Saints AJHL 12 3 2 5 0.417 0.1383 0.1383 0.3862 0.3862
2021-22 Toronto Patriots OJHL 53 27 27 54 1.019 0.3061 0.2922 0.6974 0.6657
2022-23 Markham Royals OJHL 50 31 50 81 1.620 0.4866 0.4396 1.1089 1.0019
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Robert Morris D1 AHA JR 13 0 4 4 0.308
2024-25 Robert Morris D1 AHA — 33 4 6 10 0.303
2023-24 Robert Morris D1 AHA — 38 6 8 14 0.368
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.33
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.37
2023-24 · Robert Morris
+13.1% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

28%
NCAA D1
0%
NCAA D2/D3
68%
Age-Out / Club
5%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#11666
Forward overall
#571
Forward born in 2002
#325
in OJHL

D1 Comparables

Trevor Mingoia
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.91 PPG
→ Union (0.33 D1 FR PPG)
0.49 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Dylan Walchuk
WHL · 2012-13 · 0.86 PPG
→ Northern Michigan (0.42 D1 FR PPG)
0.37 Average
NCAAe PPG
David Goodwin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.67 PPG
→ Penn State (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.37 Average
NCAAe PPG
Carlos Amestoy
OHL · 2012-13 · 0.75 PPG
→ Maine
0.39 No data
NCAAe PPG
Shane Sooth
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.95 PPG
→ Northern Michigan (0.45 D1 FR PPG)
0.52 Average
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Carter Davis
St. Scholastica · 2007-08
0.538 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Cullen Bradshaw
St. Norbert · 2010-11
0.968 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Casey Shade
Wentworth · 2007-08
1.407 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.