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McKay Hayes Elite Prospects ↗

Position: Forward DOB: 2002-01-27 Country: Canada
No commitment set

Set Commitment

NCAA Division I

NCAA D3 / D2

Career Trajectory
Dashed = raw PPG  ·  ■ Solid blue = age-adjusted NCAAe-PPG  ·  ■ Green = actual college PPG
Junior Seasons
Season Team League GP G A Pts PPG NCAAe-PPG Age-Adj D3e-PPG Age-Adj
2017-18 Caledon Admirals OJHL 2 0 0 0 0.000 — — — —
2018-19 Burlington Cougars OJHL 13 1 1 2 0.154 0.0377 0.0415 0.1059 0.1165
2019-20 Milton Menace OJHL 51 9 16 25 0.490 0.1201 0.1201 0.3375 0.3375
2020-21 Spruce Grove Saints AJHL 12 3 2 5 0.417 0.1398 0.1398 0.3856 0.3856
2021-22 Toronto Patriots OJHL 53 27 27 54 1.019 0.2497 0.2384 0.7015 0.6696
2022-23 Markham Royals OJHL 50 31 50 81 1.620 0.3971 0.3588 1.1154 1.0077
■ Blue = NCAAe (D1 anchor)   ■ Green = D3e (D3 anchor)   COVID-flagged seasons highlighted in yellow
College Seasons (Historical)
Season School Div Conference Year GP G A Pts PPG
2025-26 Robert Morris D1 AHA JR 13 0 4 4 0.308
2024-25 Robert Morris D1 AHA — 33 4 6 10 0.303
2023-24 Robert Morris D1 AHA — 38 6 8 14 0.368
Pre-College Projection vs. Actual Freshman Year
Projected PPG
0.27
before college
→
Actual FR PPG
0.37
2023-24 · Robert Morris
+38.5% vs. projection

College Pathway Likelihood (based on 40 comparables)

42%
NCAA D1
5%
NCAA D2/D3
32%
Age-Out / Club
20%
Pro / Other

NCAAe Rankings

#12162
Forward overall
#599
Forward born in 2002
#279
in OJHL

D1 Comparables

Dylan Walchuk
WHL · 2012-13 · 0.86 PPG
→ Northern Michigan (0.42 D1 FR PPG)
0.37 Average
NCAAe PPG
David Goodwin
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.67 PPG
→ Penn State (0.53 D1 FR PPG)
0.35 Average
NCAAe PPG
Carlos Amestoy
OHL · 2012-13 · 0.75 PPG
→ Maine
0.39 No data
NCAAe PPG
Will Suter
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.47 PPG
→ Bentley (0.10 D1 FR PPG)
0.25 Developing
NCAAe PPG
Trevor Mingoia
USHL · 2012-13 · 0.91 PPG
→ Union (0.33 D1 FR PPG)
0.47 Developing
NCAAe PPG

D2/3 Comparables

Carter Davis
St. Scholastica · 2007-08
0.538 Average
actual D2/3 PPG
Cullen Bradshaw
St. Norbert · 2010-11
0.968 Strong
actual D2/3 PPG
Casey Shade
Wentworth · 2007-08
1.407 Elite
actual D2/3 PPG

How to read this: NCAAe and D3e factors convert a player's junior PPG into expected NCAA scoring at the D1 or D3 level. Harder conferences → lower projected PPG for the same player. A strong junior player (e.g. USHL 0.90 PPG) will project much higher in NESCAC than Big Ten because the D3 scoring environment is lower-difficulty.

Strength factor: conferences above 1.0 are harder than average; below 1.0 are easier. The formula is: Base NCAAe PPG ÷ Conference Strength = Projected PPG.